By-Election Report – 22/09/2016

I’ve not been writing these weekly updates long, however each week I’ve been able to use the “Winning Here!” Sign and started with “Congratulations to…” As we have gained. This week we we don’t have 1 gain… We have 3!

Congratulations to the Plasnewydd team in Cardiff who closed our conference in style by winning their by election on Tuesday – obviously timed to catch us off guard. Taking yet another Labour seat the team increased their vote share by 15 points to almost take half the votes and took our net gains to 15.
Plasnewydd (Cardiff) result:
LDEM: 48.1% (+15.4)
LAB: 34.8% (-2.0)
PC: 6.8% (-5.3)
CON: 4.4% (-1.2)
GRN: 3.6% (-9.3)
UKIP: 2.4% (+2.4)

By-election net changes graph - 20/09/2016 - The Liberal Democrats Number 1 in local council by-elections since 5th May 2016. Net Up 15, Gained 15, lost 0.
Now those that follow these wonderful Gain charts regularly may be thinking “15? Weren’t we on 13 on Thursday?” And you would be right, sort of.

As we all gathered on Saturday in Brighton (or Friday for those who attended the excellent Lib Dem Pint) still basking in the glorious 13th gain from Tupton, we eagerly listened to Sal Brinton’s speech to open the Rally. In this she proudly proclaimed our 15 gains, then proceeded to read out 17 names as the crowd proudly shouted “GAIN!”. Immediately my eye brows were raised. 15? Surely Sal and here team couldn’t have made a mistake, but where was our mistake? It turns out both of us were wrong. As I went through the list along with John, Brian and Glynn it became clear that 3 of the names Sal read out were actually Town Council wins and whilst great we were counting those (dif we did the gains would be much higher!). That left just one, Amesbury East in Wiltshire UA, this was indeed a gain! This actually dates back to the 5th of May, the day of the 2016 local elections, however this wasn’t one of those this was actually a by-election and so we decided it should be in our list of gains. There is still debate going on as to whether this is a sound methodology though, plus hints that there are 2 others we are missing so this could change again before Next Thursday!

So having got that sorted and agreeing that with the Cardiff win we were on 15 gains, the chart now needs updating again as last night we gained again!

Congratulations to the team in Teignmouth Central who took the seat from the Conservatives showing we are taking from Red, Blue, and Purple! Increasing vote share by nearly 30 points to take over half the votes is a brilliant example of what can be achieved.
Teignmouth Central (Teignbridge) result:
LDEM: 51.1% (+28.3)
CON: 29.8% (-12.6)
UKIP: 11.6% (+11.6)
LAB: 7.5% (-8.7)

Congratulations also to the team in Hadleigh who had to wait till almost lunchtime to find out that they had also won, defeating the Conservatives with a healthy 12 point increase to take 36% of the vote.
Hadleigh (Suffolk) result:
LDEM: 36.2% (+12.0)
CON: 25.9% (-5.6)
LAB: 22.4% (+5.8)
UKIP: 11.5% (-11.3)
GRN: 3.9% (-0.9)
There were also other positives from the night with vote share increases in Carmarthenshire, Gateshead and Allerdale.
Cilycwm (Carmarthenshire) result:
PC: 27.8% (+27.8)
IND: 20.9% (+20.9)
LAB: 17.0% (+17.0)
IND: 14.7% (+14.7)
PF: 8.9% (+8.9)
LD: 8.6% (+8.6)
CON: 2.1% (-17.2)

Chopwell & Rowlands Gill (Gateshead) result:
LAB: 59.1% (-3.7)
UKIP: 15.6% (+1.3)
LDEM: 12.3% (+7.9)
CON: 8.6% (-2.3)
GRN: 4.4% (-3.2)

Christchurch (Allerdale) result:
LAB: 40.7% (+5.8)
LDEM: 29.4% (+20.0)
CON: 25.9% (-19.3)
UKIP: 4.0% (+4.0)

Although in Cherwell the Conservatives took votes from everyone meaning we stayed in last place with a slight loss in vote share.
Adderbury, Bloxham & Bodicote (Cherwell) result:
CON: 57.4% (+8.5)
LAB: 16.2% (-0.3)
GRN: 15.7% (-5.5)
LDEM: 10.7% (-2.8)

Disappointingly the final 3 results of the night failed to have a Lib Dem candidate standing.
Coatbridge North & Glenboig first prefs:
LAB: 41.7% (-11.3)
SNP: 39.0% (+8.2)
CON: 11.3% (+5.3)
GRN: 6.0% (+6.0)
UKIP: 1.9% (+1.9)
Old Stratford (South Northamptonshire) result:
CON: 77.2% (+77.2)
UKIP: 22.8% (+22.8)
Conservative HOLD.
Con previously elected unopposed.

Arley & Whitacre (North Warwickshire) result:
LAB: 59.7% (+33.7)
CON: 40.3% (+1.7)
Greens and UKIP didn’t stand this time round.

This also doesn’t include our Town Council results where we gained 4 seats in total. 1 from Labour in Hailsham, 1 in Cockermouth and 2 in Teignmouth all from the Conservatives.

East (Hailsham TC)
LD Graham Moore 161 [59.6%]
Independent 109 [40.4%]
Majority 52 Turnout 13.3%
LD gain from Labour (last election 2015 uncontested)

Christchurch (Cockermouth TC)
LD Rebecca Hanson 228 [41.1%]
Labour 189 [34.1%]
No Description 138 [24.8%]
Majority 39
Turnout 36%
LD gain from Conservatives
Last contested 2015

Central (Teignmouth TC)
LD Julie Philips 451 [48.3%]
LD Roy Gordon Philips 399
Conservative 355 [38.0%]
Conservative 326
Labour 128 [13.7%]
Labour 119
Majority 96
Turnout 24.9%
LD gains (x2) from Conservatives

Full details of last nights By-Election results can be found on the ALDC website’s By-Election Results page and details of that is coming next on my preview page.

Well done to all who stood last night regardless of the result. It is really important that we stand candidates in all by-elections in order to build the habit of voting Liberal Democrat. If there is no candidate of ours on the ballot paper we are depriving someone of their ability to vote for us. If you are interested in standing as a candidate please get in touch with your Local Party or ALDC.

Update – 23/08/2016 16:55 : added Teignmouth Town Council gains missed earlier.

Update – 30/09/2016 14:30 : after much debate we decided to drop Amesbury East and all 5th May by-elections as if we included this we would need to include all the other elections on that day which would then massively skew the graph. All future charts for this period will now have a start date of 6th May 2016

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